Here we are at the end of October.  Summer is over, the leaves are turning beautiful colors and the temps are getting a bit cool.   We have a lot to be thankful for and the holiday season is on the way.  The business and investment climate is still a bit crazy, though.

Early this month the stock market began a sharp decline and the Dow (DJIA) fell through the 10,000 mark.  This caused a round of panic selling over the next 2 weeks which has left the DJIA around 8,000.  Ouch!  Typically, when stock prices are falling investors shift money from stock investments into safer treasury bonds.  When Treasury bond rates fall mortgage rates typically follow.  Nothing is following typical patterns right now though.

The Fed announced a surprise ½% rate cut on February 8th to try and settle the markets and to help the banking crisis by making it cheaper for banks to borrow money.  The bad news – over the course of that same week mortgage rates actually went up ½% and were approaching 7%!  Fear and negative sentiment were really the driving forces during that week.  Mortgage rates started to edge down again the week of the 20th when some weaker than expected economic news began being reported.  Keep in mind that interest rates typically go down when the economy is weak and rise when things are booming.

The Retail Sales figures reported a drop of 1.2% which was significantly worse than anticipated.  Also reported that day was the Producer Price Index which was reasonably close to estimates with a .4% drop in PPI (the cost to produce declined excluding food and energy – this is good because the last thing we need right now is inflation!).  The Consumer Price Index (also a measure of inflation) rose only .1% and was also under forecasts.  Industrial Production fell a whopping 2.8% and Consumer Confidence was down.  One piece of good news for all of us was that gas prices fell significantly!  Yee Hah . . . filled up my tank for under fifty bucks!

Anyway, all of this news lead mortgage rates back down again through the 24th.   The key right now is volatility.  My advice if you are buying a home, refinancing or working with clients who are doing either, is to work with an expert who can guide you and advise you as to when and why you should lock a rate.   With over 17 years of experience and a track record of truthful and honest service, I am that guy!  Please keep me in mind when you need help with any type of home finance.

Written by Ken Mascia
Oxford Financial, 248.644.1200
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I just ran a complete search of home sales in Birmingham MI for the first three quarters of 2008. There were 243 home sales (225 sold, 18 pending sales) between January 1st and September 30th, 2008.

I decided to create a pdf file so that readers could take a look at these sales themselves. Statistics about Birmingham home prices are always skewed by the high number of $1 sales, deeds that are recorded without the actual sales price. So far this year, I counted 48 $1 sales. So basically over 20% of the home sales data is incorrect or hidden.

Unfortunately, this leads to huge distortions in the statistics we receive from our MLS and our board of Realtors. These statistics are most skewed for Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, where the practice is most common. The numbers are consistently skewed, so we continue to use them as we have nothing better to offer.

This PDF contains clean data about Birmingham MI home sales.

Written by Maureen Francis
SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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HALLOWEEN HOOT- Beverly Hills

The 13th Annual Halloween Hoot takes place Sunday, October 26th at Beverly Park.

* 10 am - Noon - Topping & Gutting Pumpkins (Volunteers needed)

* Noon - 2 pm - Carving Pumpkins
* The first 200 youngsters can carve a free pumpkin

* 6 pm - 8 pm - Trick or Treating
* Children can trick or treat along the “friendly” path of the park’s wooded trail

Halloween Parade & Pumpkin Patch - Birmingham
Date: 10/26/2008 1:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Location: Shain Park
Birmingham, Michigan 48009

The Pumpkin Patch will be held in Shain Park: 1:00PM - 4:00PM. The Halloween Parade will begin at 4:00PM.

For additional information contact:
Birmingham Bloomfield Chamber - 248.644.1700
Jr. League of Birmingham - 248.203.9841
The Community House - 248.644.5832

Photo by Minipixel

Written by Maureen Francis
SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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The Metropolitan Consolidated Association of Realtors released third quarter 2008 home sales statistics for Oakland County today, compiled from information they received from Realcomp, our mls.

We’ve highlighted the report for markets that we serve, like Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak and Troy.

In the county as a whole, sales were up by 21.12% year to year, with the number of listings down by 12.82% and sales volume down by 5.5%. The falling number of listings, if broader economic conditions were more positive, would typically bode well for stabilization of prices. Obviously with today’s economic uncertainty, it is challenging to predict future prices, and it seems likely that downward pressure on prices will continue until Metro Detroit begins to create jobs. There, I said it out loud.

A few key stats from some local municipalities:

  • In Beverly Hills sales, in units, were UP by 20%, while median price fell by 25% to $226,300.
  • In Birmingham sales, in units, were down by 5.71%, while median price fell 26% to $265,750
  • In Bloomfield Township sales, in units, were UP by 27%, while median price fell by 13% to $258,421
  • In Royal Oak sales, in units, were UP by 2%, while median price fell by 17% to $142,000
  • In Troy sales, in units, were down by 7%, while median price fell by 13% to $213,917
  • All is not dismal in these numbers. I think far more homes are being sold than people tend to believe. Dmitry and I continue to have our record best year, representing buyers and sellers in Oakland County. If you aren’t seriouslycommitted to selling your home, it should not be on the market. If you are a buyer, Oakland County is your oyster, with some exceptional deals to be had.

    Written by Maureen Francis
    SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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    This would be funny if it weren’t so true.
    Well, it’s a little funny.  In an uncomfortable kind of way.
    The abundance of foreclosures may put a damper on Halloween trick-or-treating this year, but it doesn’t have to.
    Stage those foreclosures to sell them!
    Vignette and surface staging can go a long way to warm up a property and help a potential buyer bond with the house.  It is an effective, economical alternative to full-house staging.
    While most banks won’t commit to a monthly lease for rental furniture to stage the entire house, they will often give an allowance for improvements.  Real estate agents who are “in the know” designate this allowance for staging services.  A home stager can bring in accessories from their inventory to stage bathrooms, kitchen counters, fireplace mantles, etc.  We can also help with the exterior and improve curb appeal–no more haunted houses!
    Foreclosures don’t have to sit on the market collecting cobwebs.  Make sure the spookiest house on the block is the one with the Halloween decorations. . .not a forgotten, neglected foreclosed property!

    Written by Marianne Sweet
    Home Sweet Home Staging, (586) 212-8400
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    This week we got a question from Tim.  He writes:

    My son and his family are relocating back to Oakland County after 4 years in the military. Their financial situation is fairly strong. They have a serious interest in a house listed as a short sale. The listed price for the home is about half the price of other listings in the neighborhood. The house is only 3 years old but has not been well maintained and needs some work. The question: How long can a home linger in a short sale status before it moves to the Sheriff’s Sale and ultimately foreclosure? It seems like a short sale is kind of in a twilight zone….neither here nor there. The home is currently occupied by the homeowners.

    Tim, I wish there was a quick and easy answer to this question, but there isn’t.  First of all, the lender is under no obligation to begin the foreclosure process.   They could, quite literally, wait years without a payment before they begin the foreclosure process and proceed to having a sheriff’s sale.  After the sheriff’s sale the homeowner usually has 6 months to redeem the house, or sell it in a short sale, before the bank will take the house back and have them evicted if they are still living there.

    I sincerely hope your son has a buyer’s agent, preferably one experienced with short sales.  They need to be asking the seller where they are in the process and to see some evidence of this.  Public records should give some indication if the sheriff’s sale has taken place.  Find out if there is a bankruptcy involved or a pending divorce.

    The other bugger about short sales is that the listed asking price means NOTHING most of the time.  Banks won’t talk to sellers about a short sale until they have an offer.  The Realtor’s job is to generate an offer.  The bank can, after months of waiting for a response, counter at a much higher price than the seller and the purchaser have agreed upon.

    The other thing to remember is that while this short sale is being processed by the bank, the current owners will probably continue to neglect it, as they already know they are losing it.

    There are many, many potential pitfalls in buying a short sale.  My personal advice to most purchasers is to find a motivated seller who can sell without involving the bank, and don’t even look at the short sales.  SHORT sale is a misnomer.  There is nothing short about it for the buyer.  And there is no easy road map.

    I wish your son the best of luck and I thank him for his service to our country.

    photo by Kevin Dooley

    Written by Maureen Francis
    SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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    Ostrich

    I spent much of this week with my head blissfully in the sand.  While others fretted about stock market losses and the failed housing market, I just kind of failed to tune in.

    Crazy words, I know.  I am hardly apathetic and I tend to be pretty well informed.  But this week, as the sky fell around me, my life just went on.

    That is not to say I won’t be impacted.  Like most people, I lost a lot of money on paper.  I don’t know how much and I probably will not open my brokerage statement this month. Or next month… My nest-egg got smaller and my borrowing ability shrank with the tightening credit market.

    But in my small world here in Metro Detroit, I am still seeing houses sold.  Selling houses in Metro Detroit is actually my BIG world, something I do every single day, all day.  I went about my business and added to the “sold” statistics for 2008, which, by the way, are up over 2007 YTD.

    Really, keeping about our business is what most of us should be doing instead of freaking out.  Your home might be worth less.  If you weren’t planning on moving soon and you don’t need to refinance then you won’t feel the bite imminently.  You might even see a future reduction on your property taxes.

    Fundamentals for Today’s Oakand County Home Seller

    This is a market ONLY for serious, committed sellers.  That means your house is priced right and marketed exceptionally.  Priced right means it will be perceived by buyers to be a better deal than the other things they see in that price range.  I have not talked to a buyer in the last 2 years that is not focused on the deal. They all have different ways of articulating it, but in the end, at a minimum they want to do what they can to make sure they are making a decent investment when they buy.  At a mximum, they want to feel like they got a bloody steal.

    This week I heard of buyers who were dropping their intended offers by as much as $100,000 in response to global economic issues.  If you are a seller you need to be prepared to hear things like:

    • Your house is not worth what you paid for it
    • Your house is not worth what the taxman has told you it is worth
    • Your house is not worth ANY refi appraisal you had in the last decade
    • Your house is not worth more than all the other houses in the neighborhood
    • Your house is not worth what it was worth 6 months ago.

    That last one is important.  Most of our listings this summer were sold in 60 days or less, so I have lots of proof that correct pricing and exceptional marketing works. In some segments of the Metro Detroit market, the average days on market is close to 3 years.  In many of those cases, the sellers are not responding to the changes in the market and by leaving their home prices too high, they are making their homes nearly Sale Proof.

    Chasing a market down does not work.  You have to be slightly ahead of the market to get the deal.

    If you are selling a Meto Detroit home, you can’t be an ostrich.  Sorry.  You have to pull your head out of the sand and either get your house off the market or do what it takes to get it sold.  There ARE buyers out there and you can count yourself amongst this year’s sold statistics if you follow the right path.

    Coming next: Observations about today’s buyers.

    Written by Maureen Francis
    SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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    The big news this morning is that the Federal Reserve Board moved to lower the federal funds rate overnight by ½%.  Five other central banks around the world also lowered key lending rates in a concerted effort to loosen up lending and pump money into the banking system.

    Of course, we’ve all heard about the $700 billion program, passed by Congress last week, to “bail out” US banks.   The purpose of this legislation is to allow the federal government to purchase problem assets from banks to add liquidity to the banking system.  One of the key things that happened to create the current problems in the US financial system is the lack of liquidity in the mortgage backed securities (MBS) market.  Due to higher than normal foreclosure rates in mortgage portfolios investors have been unwilling to purchase new and existing MBS.  Many banks have large portfolios of mortgages and MBS and the frozen market for these assets has forced banks to have to write-down the value of these assets.  These write-downs have created huge paper losses and that combined with banks inability to sell mortgage assets has created a contraction in lending and a liquidity problem at banks – they simply don’t have enough cash to make loans and meet capital requirements.

    This fed rate reduction combined with the government bailout plan and other recent moves are all reaching towards the same goal – to increase liquidity in banks and foster an environment in which banks can and will make more loans available to consumers and businesses and thus stabilize the financial systems and the overall economy.

    I also wanted to let you know that we are still making loans, getting people approved and closing deals!  I am working with a whole bunch of first time buyers right now who are seeing great opportunities in this market and you don’t have to have perfect credit and a 20% down payment to get in the door.  The FHA loan is back and is filling in the gaps with loan amounts up to $297,500 (in Southeastern Michigan), credit scores as low as 580 and only 3% down.  We still have great Jumbo ARM rates for people taking advantage of super deals in the luxury market.  When you want to ensure that your Pre-Approved clients get to the closing table successfully just give them my card.

    For all of us in the real estate and mortgage world, these are challenging times.  However, it’s my opinion that when the smoke clears we are going to enjoy a great market with a lot less players in the field.  It’s just a matter of keeping your chin up, your attitude positive and working hard.  Be one of the survivors and I guarantee you’ll be glad you did!

    Written by Ken Mascia
    Oxford Financial, 248.644.1200
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    I guess the ex-Mayor of Detroit isn’t planning on moving to his Tallahassee Florida home any time soon (even after he finishes serving his time in jail). The 4 bedroom, 3 bath home that the Kilpatrick’s purchased in June of 2007 for $430,000 is currently on the market for $399,900 with Gary Bartlett, a former television news anchor turned Realtor.

    As a Realtor, I was just musing about what might happen if an offer comes in while KK is behind bars?  I can just hear Gary Bartlett saying to the other agent, “Well, it might take me a few days to get back to you with a counter offer.  The next time my client’s wife can visit him in jail to get anything signed is Friday.”  That would certainly make for an interesting transaction.  Of course, they will take care of such things with a Power of Attorney, but, still, I had fun musing.

    Today’s Detroit News had an article about how happy the neighbors in the Detroit neighborhood surrounding the Manoogian Mansion were  to have the commotion that came along with having the Kilpatrick’s as neighbors a thing of the past.  Certainly the Tallahassee neighbors have been affected to a much lesser degree, though they might be hopeful that a full time resident will purchase the home.

    Wondering if the proceeds from the sale, if their are any, will be used to pay off the $1 million Kilpatrick owes in restitution?

    Photo from Gary Bartlett.com

    Written by Maureen Francis
    SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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    As a home stager, I am called by real estate agents and homeowners to help prepare their properties for sale. While it is impossible to say how long the house would have taken to sell had I not been involved, I firmly believe that the changes implemented have made a difference in the DOM.

    I could quote national statistics of staged vs. non-staged houses, but I don’t think they translate to Michigan or accurately reflect our real estate market. Things are a little different here in The Mitten. My fellow local stagers, across the board, have all reported good results with the properties they have staged. I can say with great confidence that staging works.

    So, why aren’t more houses staged?

    As I look around at all of the “For Sale” signs in Oakland County, I ponder this question. Is it fear of the unknown? Are people still unaware of home staging? Are real estate agents simply confident in their ability to tell sellers what must be done to sell? Are sellers afraid of stagers touching their “stuff”? Is there a misconception that staging is expensive and only for high-end houses? Are sellers non-believers? Are agents?

    So, in the interest of full disclosure, here is a list of “wills” and won’ts” when it comes to staging.

    A good home stager WILL:

    • De-clutter
    • De-personalize
    • Organize
    • Explain why we’re doing what we’re doing
    • Edit furnishings down to the minimun needed in each room
    • Re-purpose and work with what you already have
    • Suggest specific accessories if augmentation is needed. Most will be able to rent to you from their own inventory for a nominal monthly fee
    • Make the house look as up-to-date as possible
    • Accentuate the focal point of each room
    • Maximize positive features and minimize flaws
    • Identify problems that need attention, such as cracks, water damage, unfinished projects, burned-out bulbs, odors, stains, worn hardware and fixtures, etc.
    • Improve traffic flow
    • Suggest neutral paint colors
    • Create a warm, inviting feel that buyers will respond to
    • Pump up the curb appeal
    • Determine correct artwork placement
    • Be the “bad guy”, since most sellers take suggestions better from an objective third party
    • Refer sellers to trusted painters, handymen, cleaners, storage facilities and contractors
    • Arrange for rental furniture if needed
    • Improve every house, regardless of price, location or condition
    • Treat your belongings with care
    • Work WITH the agent to get the house sold
    • Understand and respect that selling is an emotional process
    • Be your biggest cheerleader and root for a quick sale

    A good home stager WILL NOT:

    • Hide problems by covering them up
    • Berate your design choices
    • Pretend to know if your house is priced correctly or being marketed well
    • Charge you an arm and a leg for staging. If you have a budget limit, TELL US! We can suggest many low-cost or no-cost remedies that will help the property show better
    • Use sub-standard garage sale furniture in your house (yes, I have heard this is a concern!)
    • Be a go-between with your ex (yes, this has happened also)
    • Throw anything away without your consent
    • Sugar-coat the truth
    • Second-guess the agent’s advice
    • Clean the house, other than any messes we have made (i.e. we don’t do windows!)
    • Insist that you install granite or gut your bathroom
    • Dismiss your concerns
    • Stop staging until your house looks it’s best

    I hope this gives readers a better view of a home stager’s role and clears up any misconceptions. Getting the house sold is our #1 priority, and we will do whatever we can to that end. We have a passion for the job. Otherwise we wouldn’t put our bodies through the wear and tear of staging! For those that have been unsure or afraid to use a stager’s services, what not give it a try on your next listing? You just may become a believer too.

    Go Tigers!

    Written by Marianne Sweet
    Home Sweet Home Staging, (586) 212-8400
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    In a historic move yesterday, Treasury Secretary Carlson announced the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two financial giants have been struggling over the past year due to an unprecedented increase in foreclosures which relate to falling home values and the subprime loan meltdown. If the two were allowed to fail the results would have been catastrophic.

    Fannie and Freddie are the most important conduits involved in mortgage lending. They purchase or guarantee more than one half of all mortgage loans made in the U.S. – almost $5 trillion. Lack of confidence in these entities this year has resulted in a steep decline in demand for the mortgage backed securities (MBS) created when mortgage loans are made. This weak demand has caused mortgage rates to remain higher than they otherwise could be and higher mortgage rates are not helping the ailing housing market.

    This year we have also seen a huge increase in fees that Fannie and Freddie have introduced to offset losses. A whole new rate structure was introduced whereby anyone with a credit score under 720 was charged a higher rate and the rate kept going up the closer you got to a 620 score. In the past, any borrower who was approvable within conventional guidelines got the same rate regardless of credit score. There is some hope that the government will reduce or eliminate these fees allowing more borrowers to be approved at lower rates.

    Overall, this move should help to reduce interest rates on conventional loans and attract more buyers into the housing market. I can tell you it’s already working in terms of lowering mortgage rates as the 30 Year Fixed rate declined from 6.5% on Friday to 6.0% today. That’s over a $65 decrease in the monthly payment on a $200,000 mortgage!

    The purpose behind this takeover is to improve confidence among investors who buy MBS, to ensure the continued viability of the U.S. mortgage market and to help ease the worst decline in home prices since the Great Depression. Let’s hope it succeeds!

    Written by Ken Mascia
    Oxford Financial, 248.644.1200
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    A recent client wanted a completed NEW home in Birmingham.  With a budget of $2,000,000, one would have thought we would have had plenty to chose from.  We did not.

    Spec building in Birmingham, and throughout Oakland County, has almost come to a stop.  We are still seeing a few spec homes going up around town, but not many at all.  Most builders are holding off starting new projects, with a few exceptions.

    One prominent local builder told me that other builders are having trouble getting lines of credit for construction.  Many of those who have access to cash are risk averse, and not building specs, reserving their work. Anyone who has lived here more than a few years will notice that there are less construction sites throughout the city.

    In some ways, this is a good thing. It will help some resale home sellers who might have lost a buyer to new construction, but did not have that option. As the inventory of resale homes diminishes, that can put supply more in balance with demand. Eventually prices will start to head back up, and builders will start building again.

    Personally, if I were a savvy builder, I would be looking to acquire land, even if I did not plan to build this year. There are some super values out there, and if the property is rentable it can have a decent positive cash flow for a while.

    Written by Maureen Francis
    SKBK Sotheby's International Realty, 248.430.4450
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